Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Waste Connections anticipates significant margin expansion, potentially reaching 34% margins by the second half of 2024, driven by improvements in underlying business operations, favorable commodity prices, and accretive acquisitions. Management indicated that 34% is not a limiting factor, with margins expected to go higher, especially with the contribution of $200 million in annual EBITDA from planned renewable natural gas (RNG) projects starting in 2026.
- The company is pursuing substantial growth opportunities through mergers and acquisitions (M&A), with active letters of intent and discussions in all operating regions, suggesting that 2024 could be one of their busiest years ever for acquisitions. These acquisitions are expected to be accretive and enhance asset utilization, including increasing tonnage through assets like the Arrowhead facility acquired in August 2023.
- Ongoing operational improvements, such as reducing employee turnover and improving safety, are driving cost savings and margin expansion. Lower employee turnover, now 30% below the peaks in late '22, is leading to cost efficiencies, improved safety records, and better customer satisfaction, enabling the company to capitalize on both organic and inorganic growth opportunities. Additionally, the company is exploring technological advancements, including the utilization of AI in various areas, to further enhance operations in the coming years.
- Declining Solid Waste Volumes: The company expects solid waste volume to decrease by 2.5% to 3% in Q2 2024, partly due to ongoing purposeful shedding and prior acquisitions. This indicates ongoing volume pressures and potential challenges in organic growth.
- Margin Expansion Reliant on Commodity Benefits: Approximately 100 basis points of the 160 basis points adjusted EBITDA margin improvement in Q1 2024 was driven by commodity-related factors such as recycled commodities and RINs. Management noted that these benefits might abate over the course of the year, which could impact future margins. Additionally, ongoing acquisitions are typically margin dilutive in the short term.
- Operational Risks from Severe Weather Impacts: The company experienced significant weather disruptions in Q1 2024 that led to facility closures and operational challenges in multiple regions. While management attributes this to unusual weather patterns, there is a risk of continued disruptions or slower-than-anticipated recovery affecting volumes and profitability.
-
Margin Outlook and Expansion
Q: Can you provide more detail on the margin improvement and expectations going forward?
A: Margins improved by 160 basis points in Q1, a strong start despite weather impacts. Excluding weather, margins were up 200 basis points, split between commodities like recycling and RINs contributing about 100 basis points, and the underlying solid waste business adding another 100 basis points. We expect continued margin expansion with an incremental 120 basis points improvement in Q2 driven by the underlying business. Our full-year guidance anticipates 120 basis points of margin expansion evenly distributed, but we are considering an update in July due to outperformance. -
Impact of PFAS Regulations
Q: How will the new PFAS regulations affect Waste Connections, particularly leachate costs and M&A opportunities?
A: The EPA's PFAS regulations were expected and are seen as positive for well-capitalized companies like ours. We believe it creates a uniform playing field and potential pricing opportunities exceeding compliance costs. Leachate costs are around 1% of revenues, and treatment technologies are available at capital costs of $1 million to $4 million per landfill, which won't significantly increase expenses. Over time, these regulations could drive M&A, benefiting larger acquirers, though impacts may not be felt until 2025 or later. -
M&A Contributions to Revenue
Q: What is the expected M&A benefit to 2024 revenue based on recent activities?
A: Incremental deal activity adds $80 million to $90 million for the full year on top of the previously expected $325 million. We're seeing opportunities across all regions with active LOIs, potentially making this one of our busiest years for acquisitions. -
Employee Turnover Reduction
Q: How is employee turnover trending, and what impact will it have on the business?
A: We've reduced open headcounts year-over-year by 46%, bringing open positions down to about 4% from a peak of 7.5%. Voluntary turnover is now at 15.7% with a target of 10% to 12% by year-end. Lower turnover is starting to yield cost benefits, contributing 10 to 20 basis points of margin improvement so far, with more expected over time. -
SECURE Energy Acquisition Update
Q: What's the update on the SECURE Energy acquisition and its impact on guidance?
A: Of the 29 acquired facilities, we're currently running 22. We may reopen up to 2 of the 7 shuttered facilities before year-end, with more potentially in 2025 and 2026. The guidance does not assume any incremental openings, so any additions would provide upside. -
Chiquita Canyon Landfill Expenses
Q: How are expenses for the Chiquita Canyon landfill tracking, and will cost estimates change?
A: Expenses are tracking as expected, and we don't anticipate significant changes to the accrued $160 million closure cost. We review closure and post-closure accruals annually, and any material changes will be communicated. -
Guidance on Commodity Prices
Q: What are the guidance assumptions for recycled commodity and RIN prices?
A: In Q1, OCC prices averaged $130 per ton and RINs averaged $3.10. The guidance assumes these prices remain around current levels into Q2. -
Weather Impact on Q1
Q: How did weather affect Q1, and how does it compare to normal patterns?
A: Unusually severe weather, including extreme cold and heavy snow, caused shutdowns in several regions for up to 12 days, which is abnormal compared to typical seasonal impacts. -
Future Margin Targets Beyond 34%
Q: With margins approaching 34%, do you have new targets?
A: We don't see 34% as a limiting factor and expect margins to go well north of that, especially with contributions from the SECURE acquisition, adding about 50 basis points, and future RNG projects not yet included. -
New York City Franchise Update
Q: Any updates on the New York City franchise process?
A: The beta pilot for several zones begins on September 4th, and we are assisting by providing electric vehicles for the city's evaluation.